The unusual 2013–2015 drought in South Korea in the context of a multicentury precipitation record: Inferences from a nonstationary, multivariate, Bayesian copula model

• Published in: Geophysical research letters 2016-08, Vol.43 (16), p.8534-8544
• Main Authors: Kwon, Hyun‐Han, Lall, Upmanu, Kim, Seong‐Joon
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 19th century; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian modeling; Climate; Climate change; Drought; Droughts; extreme analysis; frequency analysis; Geophysics; multicentury precipitation; nonstationarity; Peninsulas; Trends; Wetting
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070270

Recently, the Korean peninsula faced severe drought for more than 3 years (2013–2015). Drought in this region is characterized by multidecadal variability, as seen from one of the longest systematic records available in Asia from 1770 to 2015. This paper explores how the return period of the 2013–2015 drought varies over this historical period to provide a context for the changing climate and drought severity in the region. A nonstationary, multivariate, Bayesian copula model for drought severity and duration is developed and applied. Given the wetting trend over the last 50 years, the recent drought appears quite extreme, while such droughts were common in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Key Points Drought is characterized by multidecadal variability, as seen from one of the longest systematic records available in Asia from 1770 to 2015 A nonstationary, multivariate, Bayesian copula model for drought severity and duration is developed and applied The recent drought appears quite extreme, while such droughts were common in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries