Dynamical downscaling of tropical cyclones from CCSM4 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Dynamical downscaling of simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and late twentieth century (20C) were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the aim of (1) understanding how the downscaled kinematic and thermodynamic variables influence simulated tropical cyclon...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of advances in modeling earth systems 2016-09, Vol.8 (3), p.1229-1247
Main Authors: Yoo, Jinwoong, Galewsky, Joseph, Camargo, Suzana J., Korty, Robert, Zamora, Ryan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology
Cyclones
dynamical downscaling
Entropy
Environmental conditions
Environmental factors
Global climate
Hurricanes
Last Glacial Maximum
Simulation
Thermal properties
Tropical climate
Tropical cyclones
Ventilation
Vertical wind shear
Vortices
Weather forecasting
Wind shear
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Summary:Dynamical downscaling of simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and late twentieth century (20C) were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the aim of (1) understanding how the downscaled kinematic and thermodynamic variables influence simulated tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific during the LGM and the 20C periods and (2) to test the relevance of TC genesis factors for the colder LGM climate. The results show that, despite the lower temperatures during the LGM, the downscaled TC climatology over the western North Pacific in the LGM simulation does not differ significantly from that in the 20C simulation. Among the TC environmental factors, the TC potential intensity, mid‐tropospheric entropy deficit, and vertical wind shear during the LGM were consistent with previous analyses of TC genesis factors in LGM global climate model simulations. Changes in TC genesis density between the LGM and the 20C simulations seem to be well represented by the ventilation index, a nondimensional measure of the combined effects of vertical wind shear, and thermodynamic properties, suggesting the potential applicability of those factors for TC activity evaluation during the LGM and possibly other climates. Key Points: Downscaled LGM TC climatology does not differ from the twentieth century Downscaled environmental factors are consistent with simulated TCs Changes in TC genesis density between LGM and 20C are represented by the ventilation index
ISSN:1942-2466
1942-2466
DOI:10.1002/2016MS000685