Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

Storm surges are an important coastal hazard component and it is unknown how they will evolve along Europe’s coastline in view of climate change. In the present contribution, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow was forced by surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields from a 8-member climate model...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate dynamics 2016-11, Vol.47 (9-10), p.3171-3190
Main Authors: Vousdoukas, Michalis I., Voukouvalas, Evangelos, Annunziato, Alessandro, Giardino, Alessio, Feyen, Luc
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric forcing
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology
Coastal hazards
Coastal zone
Coasts
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental impact
Extreme weather
Geophysics/Geodesy
Marine
Oceanography
Sea level rise
Storm surges
Storms
Water levels
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Summary:Storm surges are an important coastal hazard component and it is unknown how they will evolve along Europe’s coastline in view of climate change. In the present contribution, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow was forced by surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields from a 8-member climate model ensemble in order to evaluate dynamics in storm surge levels (SSL) along the European coastline (1) for the baseline period 1970–2000; and (2) during this century under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Validation simulations, spanning from 2008 to 2014 and driven by ERA-Interim atmospheric forcing, indicated good predictive skill (0.06 m 
ISSN:0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5