Probabilistic characterization of cyclic shear modulus reduction for normally to moderately over-consolidated clays

• Published in: Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2016-09, Vol.15 (3), p.495-508
• Main Authors: Ng, Iok-Tong, Yuen, Ka-Veng, Lao, Ngai-Kuan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayesian analysis; Civil Engineering; Clay; Clays; Control; Design engineering; Dynamical Systems; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earthquake engineering; Earthquakes; Economics; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Maintenance costs; Mathematical models; Prediction models; Seismic activity; Seismic engineering; Seismic phenomena; Shear modulus; Shear stress; Soils; Vibration; 剪切模量; 动态问题; 固结粘土; 循环剪切; 概率特性; 粘性土壤; 经验曲线; 预测模型
• ISSN: 1671-3664; 1993-503X
• DOI: 10.1007/s11803-016-0339-8

Evaluation of the cyclic shear modulus of soils is a crucial but challenging task for many geotechnical earthquake engineering and soil dynamic issues. Improper determination of this property unnecessarily drives up design and maintenance costs or even leads to the construction of unsafe structures. Due to the complexities involved in the direct measurement, empirical curves for estimating the cyclic shear modulus have been commonly adopted in practice for simplicity and economical considerations. However, a systematic and robust approach for formulating a reliable model and empirical curve for cyclic shear modulus prediction for clayey soils is still lacking. In this study, the Bayesian model class selection approach is utilized to identify the most significant soil parameters affecting the normalized cyclic shear modulus and a reliable predictive model for normally to moderately over-consolidated clays is proposed. Results show that the predictability and reliability of the proposed model out performs the well-known empirical models. Finally, a new design chart is established for practical usage.