Estimating spatially specific demand and supply of dental services: a longitudinal comparison in Northern Germany

Objectives Assessing the spatial distribution of oral morbidity‐related demand and the workforce‐related supply is relevant for planning dental services. We aimed to establish and validate a model for estimating the spatially specific demand and supply. This model was then applied to compare demand‐...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of public health dentistry 2016-09, Vol.76 (4), p.269-275
Main Authors: Schwendicke, Falk, Jäger, Ralf, Hoffmann, Wolfgang, Jordan, Rainer A., van den Berg, Neeltje
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Dental Care
Dentistry
Forecasting
Germany
Health Services Accessibility
Health Services Needs and Demand
Humans
Longitudinal Studies
Population Dynamics
Supply & demand
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Objectives Assessing the spatial distribution of oral morbidity‐related demand and the workforce‐related supply is relevant for planning dental services. We aimed to establish and validate a model for estimating the spatially specific demand and supply. This model was then applied to compare demand‐supply ratios in 2001 and 2011 in the federal state of Mecklenburg–Vorpommern (Northern Germany). Methods The spatial units were zip code areas. Demand per area was estimated by linking population‐specific oral morbidities to working times via insurance claim data. Estimated demand was validated against the provided demand in 2001 and 2011. Supply was calculated for both years using cohort data from the dentist register. The ratio of demand and supply was geographically mapped and its distribution between areas assessed using the Gini coefficient. Results Between 2001 and 2011, a significant decrease of the general population (−7.0 percent), the annual demand (−13.1 percent), and the annual supply (−12.9 percent) was recorded. The estimated demands were nearly (2001: −4 percent) and completely (2011: ±0 percent) congruent with provided demands. The average demand‐supply‐ratio did not change significantly between 2001 and 2011 (P > 0.05), but was increasingly unequally distributed. In both years, few areas were over‐serviced, while many were under‐serviced. Conclusions The established model can be used to estimate spatially specific demand and supply.
ISSN:0022-4006
1752-7325
DOI:10.1111/jphd.12142