Verbal and Numerical Expressions of Probability: “It's a Fifty–Fifty Chance”

When estimating risks, people may use “50” as an expression of the verbal phrase “fifty–fifty chance,” without intending the associated number of 50%. The result is an excess of 50s in the response distribution. The present study examined factors determining the magnitude of such a “50 blip,” using...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Organizational behavior and human decision processes 2000-01, Vol.81 (1), p.115-131
Main Authors: de Bruin, Wändi Bruine, Fischhoff, Baruch, Millstein, Susan G., Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Behavior
Biological and medical sciences
Cognition. Intelligence
Decision making. Choice
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Probability
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Studies
Uncertainty
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:When estimating risks, people may use “50” as an expression of the verbal phrase “fifty–fifty chance,” without intending the associated number of 50%. The result is an excess of 50s in the response distribution. The present study examined factors determining the magnitude of such a “50 blip,” using a large sample of adolescents and adults. We found that phrasing probability questions in a distributional format (asking about risks as a percentage in a population) rather than in a singular format (asking about risks to an individual) reduced the use of “50.” Less numerate respondents, children, and less educated adults were more likely to say “50.” Finally, events that evoked feelings of less perceived control led to more 50s. The results are discussed in terms of what they reveal about how people express epistemic uncertainty.
ISSN:0749-5978
1095-9920
DOI:10.1006/obhd.1999.2868