Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life‐cycle...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Risk analysis 2016-10, Vol.36 (10), p.1916-1935
Main Authors: Scott, Ryan P., Cullen, Alison C., Fox-Lent, Cate, Linkov, Igor
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Contact
COPPER SULFIDE
CZT
Data collection
Decision analysis
Decision making
Devices
ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS
Emerging technologies
Graphene
Graphite
IMPACT PROPERTIES
Life cycle analysis
life-cycle impact assessment
Molybdenum
Monte Carlo simulation
multi-criteria decision analysis
Nanotechnology
Optimization
Photovoltaic cells
Photovoltaics
Risk assessment
Sensitivity analysis
Solar cells
Studies
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Summary:In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life‐cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA‐MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi‐attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary.
ISSN:0272-4332
1539-6924
DOI:10.1111/risa.12539