Tool for decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood

• Published in: Public health (London) 2017-05, Vol.146, p.134-139
• Main Authors: Radosavljevic, V, Belojevic, G, Pavlovic, N
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Decision Making; Disaster Planning - methods; Floods; Humans; Infectious Disease; Internal Medicine; Public health; Reproducibility of Results; River floods; Rivers; Serbia
• ISSN: 0033-3506; 1476-5616
• DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2017.01.025

Abstract Objectives To propose a simple and effective tool for decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood. Study design Virtual testing of a tool in a real event. Method A four-component tool was applied to build an alternative scenario of the catastrophic river flood in Obrenovac, Serbia, on May 2014. The components of this tool are: (1) the amount of precipitation above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; (2) upstream river discharge above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; (3) upstream river level above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; and (4) worsening of the hydrometeorological situation in the following 48 h. Results In the early morning of 16 May 2014, a rapid river wave flooded 80% of the Obrenovac territory. There were 13 deaths due to drowning. Application of the study tool shows that these lives could have been saved, as the score to recommend general evacuation was reached 1 day before the flooding. The application of this tool to two previous great floods in Serbia shows that the score to recommend general evacuation was reached either 1 day before or on the onset of flash flooding. Conclusions Due to its simplicity, this tool is universally applicable to facilitate decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood, and it should be further tested in future similar catastrophes.