Blue Carbon Stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban Mangroves: What could Be the Scenario after a Century?

The total blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves was evaluated and the probable future status after a century was predicted based on the recent trend of changes in the last 30 years and implementing a hybrid model of Markov Chain and Cellular automata. At present 36.24 Tg C and 54.9...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Wetlands (Wilmington, N.C.) N.C.), 2016-12, Vol.36 (6), p.1033-1045
Main Authors: Chanda, Abhra, Mukhopadhyay, Anirban, Ghosh, Tuhin, Akhand, Anirban, Mondal, Parimal, Ghosh, Subhajit, Mukherjee, Sandip, Wolf, Judith, Lázár, Attila N., Rahman, Md. Munsur, Salehin, Mashfiqus, Chowdhury, S. M., Hazra, Sugata
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Avicennia
Biomass
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Carbon
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide emissions
Cellular automata
Coastal Sciences
Composition
Deforestation
Ecology
Ecosystems
Environmental Management
Excoecaria
Freshwater & Marine Ecology
Geographic information systems
Hydrogeology
Landscape Ecology
Life Sciences
Mangroves
Markov chains
Original Research
Species composition
Vegetation
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Summary:The total blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves was evaluated and the probable future status after a century was predicted based on the recent trend of changes in the last 30 years and implementing a hybrid model of Markov Chain and Cellular automata. At present 36.24 Tg C and 54.95 Tg C are stored in the above-ground and below-ground compartments respectively resulting in total blue carbon stock of 91.19 Tg C. According to the prediction 15.88 Tg C would be lost from this region by the year 2115. The low saline species composition classes dominated mainly by Heritiera spp. accounts for the major portion of the carbon sock at present (45.60 Tg C), while the highly saline regions stores only 14.90 Tg C. The prediction shows that after a hundred years almost 22.42 Tg C would be lost from the low saline regions accompanied by an increase of 8.20 Tg C in the high saline regions dominated mainly by Excoecaria sp. and Avicennia spp. The net carbon loss would be due to both mangrove area loss (~ 510 km 2 ) and change in species composition leading to 58.28 Tg of potential CO 2 emission within the year 2115.
ISSN:0277-5212
1943-6246
DOI:10.1007/s13157-016-0819-7