Climate change impact and resilience in the electricity sector: The example of Austria and Germany

• Published in: Energy policy 2017-04, Vol.103, p.238-248
• Main Authors: Totschnig, G., Hirner, R., Müller, A., Kranzl, L., Hummel, M., Nachtnebel, H.-P., Stanzel, P., Schicker, I., Formayer, H.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 21st century; Austria; Climate change; Climate models; Computer simulation; Cooling; Cost analysis; Electric industries; Electric power generation; Electricity; Electricity generation; Electricity pricing; Energy; Energy policy; Environmental impact; Fossil fuels; Fuel price shocks; Germany; Heating; Heating and ventilation; Heating systems; Indexes; Natural gas; Natural gas prices; Photovoltaics; Power generation; Power plants; Prices; Regulation; Resilience; Sensitivity analysis; Simulation; Studies; Thermal power; Thermal power plants; Weather; Wind energy; Wind power
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.019

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the resilience of possible future electricity and heating systems in regard to climate change and fuel price shocks. The dynamical simulation model HiREPS of the Austrian and German electricity, heating and cooling sectors was used for this analysis. The electricity generation cost and changes in the required secured capacity were used as indicators for the resilience of the energy system. The results show, that the analysed changes in the natural gas price have larger impact on the electricity generation cost than weather variability between different years or climate change. Especially the fossil fuel based scenario showed high sensitivity to the gas price. Analysis of the required secured capacity shows, that in the last quarter of the 21st century the annual maximum residual loads are growing and are dominated by strong cooling demand peaks. Promoting passive cooling options, efficient building designs and options for a controlled down regulation of cooling devices seems to be advisable to avoid installing large thermal power plant backup capacities. The evaluated climate model simulations show only small changes in photovoltaic, wind and hydro power generation for 2051−2080 in Austria and Germany. •Natural gas price has larger impact on the electricity cost than climate variability.•End of 21st century the annual maximum load is set by summer cooling demand peaks.•Promoting passive cooling options is advisable to avoid large backup capacities.•Only small changes in photovoltaic, wind and hydro power generation up to 2080.