Ensemble Modeling of the 23 July 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection

• Published in: Space Weather 2015-10, Vol.13 (10), p.611-625
• Main Authors: Cash, M. D., Biesecker, D. A., Pizzo, V., de Koning, C. A., Millward, G., Arge, C. N., Henney, C. J., Odstrcil, D.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Arrivals; Coronal mass ejection; Mathematical models; Modelling; Parameters; Predictions; Simulation; Space weather; Studies; Transit time; WSA-Enlil Model
• ISSN: 1542-7390; 1539-4964; 1542-7390
• DOI: 10.1002/2015SW001232

On 23 July 2012 a significant and rapid coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in situ by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) A. This CME was unusual due to its extremely brief Sun‐to‐1 AU transit time of less than 21 h and its exceptionally high impact speed of 2246 km/s. If this CME had been Earth directed, it would have produced a significant geomagnetic storm with potentially serious consequences. To protect our ground‐ and space‐based assets, there is a clear need to accurately forecast the arrival times of such events using realistic input parameters and models run in near real time. Using Wang‐Sheely‐Arge (WSA)‐Enlil, the operational model currently employed at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, we investigate the sensitivity of the 23 July CME event to model input parameters. Variations in the initial CME speed, angular width, and direction, as well as the ambient solar wind background, are investigated using an ensemble approach to study the effect on the predicted arrival time of the CME at STEREO A. Factors involved in the fast transit time of this large CME are discussed, and potential improvements to modeling such events with the WSA‐Enlil model are presented. Key Points Quantify effect of model input parameters and SW background on predicted CME arrival time Discuss the factors involved in the fast transit time of this large CME Present three potential modifications to WSA‐Enlil which would enable improved forecasting