Statistical analysis of winter ozone exceedances in the Uintah Basin, Utah, USA

Because of the confluence of several factors (persistent multiday inversions, petroleum production, and snow cover), the Uintah Basin of eastern Utah, USA, exhibits high concentrations of winter ozone. A regression analysis is presented that successfully predicts daily ozone concentration with a sta...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995) 2018-05, Vol.68 (5), p.403-414
Main Author: Mansfield, Marc L
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air quality
Inversions
Lapse rate
Ozone
Petroleum production
Quality standards
Regression analysis
Snow cover
Standard error
Statistical analysis
Structural basins
Winter
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Summary:Because of the confluence of several factors (persistent multiday inversions, petroleum production, and snow cover), the Uintah Basin of eastern Utah, USA, exhibits high concentrations of winter ozone. A regression analysis is presented that successfully predicts daily ozone concentration with a standard error of about 11 ppb. It also predicts with 90% accuracy whether any given day will exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone, 70 ppb. An analysis is introduced for calculating a "pseudo-lapse rate," a determination of inversion intensity in the absence of sounding data. By combining the model with historical meteorological data, it is possible to make long-range predictions about ozone formation. The odds of observing no exceedance days in any given season are 38%. The odds of only three or fewer exceedance days in any given season are 46%. This paper provides an improved understanding of the scientific underpinnings of the winter ozone phenomenon and an ability to make long-range predictions.
ISSN:1096-2247
2162-2906
DOI:10.1080/10962247.2017.1339646