Probabilistic Assessment of Failure for United States Air Force Building Systems

AbstractDeteriorating and failing federal facilities represent a significant cost to the U.S. government. In maintaining these assets, the United States Air Force currently uses a facility data system to assess the reliability of building components; however, the necessary probabilities of failure a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of performance of constructed facilities 2017-10, Vol.31 (5)
Main Authors: Alley, Stephanie L, Valencia, Vhance V, Thal, Alfred E, White, Edward D
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Assessments
Buildings
Failure
Fault trees
Mathematical models
Probabilistic methods
Probability theory
Technical Papers
United States Air Force
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Summary:AbstractDeteriorating and failing federal facilities represent a significant cost to the U.S. government. In maintaining these assets, the United States Air Force currently uses a facility data system to assess the reliability of building components; however, the necessary probabilities of failure are not predicted. This paper proposes a probabilistic model by using fault trees with fuzzy logic to predict the probability of failure, and therefore reliability, at the system level of a building’s infrastructure hierarchy. Through the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator, the method provides a basis for risk assessment by weighting probabilities of failure with the consequences of failure. After validating the method using real-world Air Force data, the proposed OWA model is statistically shown to be a significant improvement over the current condition index method for predicting future repair and replacement needs for building systems. The additional insight provided by the probability-based model provides another tool to evaluate building systems. This should help facility engineers and managers develop more effective long-term strategies to maintain systems and defend their budgetary requirements.
ISSN:0887-3828
1943-5509
DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0001077