Modeling current and future potential wintering distributions of eastern North American monarch butterflies

Monarch butterflies overwinter in restricted areas in montane oyamel fir forests in central Mexico with specific microclimates that allow the butterflies to survive for up to 5 months. We use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to identify areas adequate for overwintering monarch colonies under both cur...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2003-11, Vol.100 (24), p.14063-14068
Main Authors: Oberhauser, K, Peterson, A.T
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abies
air temperature
Animal migration
Animals
Biodiversity
Biological Sciences
Butterflies
Butterflies & moths
Butterflies - physiology
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Danaus plexippus
diurnal variation
Ecological modeling
ecological niche modeling
Ecological niches
Ecology
Ecosystem
Environment
Environmental conservation
environmental models
Flight, Animal
geographical distribution
Global atmospheric research program
insect colonies
insect ecology
Modeling
Models, Biological
montane forests
North America
Nymphalidae
Overwintering
precipitation
Seasons
Species
Trees
Weather
Winter
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Summary:Monarch butterflies overwinter in restricted areas in montane oyamel fir forests in central Mexico with specific microclimates that allow the butterflies to survive for up to 5 months. We use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to identify areas adequate for overwintering monarch colonies under both current and future climate scenarios. The ENM approach permits testing and validation of model predictivity, and yields quantitative, testable predictions regarding likely future climate change effects. Our models predicted monarch presence with a high degree of accuracy, and indicated that precipitation and diurnal temperature range were key environmental factors in making locations suitable for monarchs. When we projected monarch distribution onto future climate scenarios (Hadley Centre climate models), we found that conditions were likely to be inadequate across the entire current winter range, particularly owing to increased cool-weather precipitation that could cause increased mortality. This study applies ENM to understanding the seasonal dynamics of a migratory species under climate change, and uses ENM to identify key limiting environmental parameters in species' responses to climate change.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2331584100