Traps and transformations influencing the financial viability of tourism on private-land conservation areas

• Published in: Conservation biology 2018-04, Vol.32 (2), p.424-436
• Main Authors: Clements, Hayley S., Cumming, Graeme S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation; adaptive capacity; Business models; capacidad adaptativa; comando y control; command and control; Computer simulation; Conservation; Conservation areas; Conservation organizations; dependencia de caminos; Ecological effects; Ecological monitoring; Ecotourism; Environment models; Environmental conditions; Hunting; Initial conditions; Investment; Land conservation; Landowners; manejo de recursos naturales; mechanistic model; modelo mecánico; natural resource management; Organizations; path dependence; Predators; private protected area; Profits; Rain; Rainfall; retroalimentación socio‐ecológica; social‐ecological feedback; Socioeconomics; Stability; Stability analysis; Sustainability; Tourism; Variability; Viability; vulnerabilidad; vulnerability; área protegida privada; 指挥和控制; 机制模型; 社会‐生态反馈; 私有保护地; 脆弱性; 自然资源管理; 路径依赖; 适应能力
• ISSN: 0888-8892; 1523-1739
• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12999

The ability of private conservation organizations to remain financially viable is a key factor influencing their effectiveness. One-third of financially motivated private-land conservation areas (PLCAs) surveyed in South Africa are unprofitable, raising questions about landowners' abilities to effectively adapt their business models to the socioeconomic environment. In any complex system, options for later adaptation can be constrained by starting conditions (path dependence). We tested 3 hypothesized drivers of path dependence in PLCA ecotourism and hunting business models: (H1) the initial size of a PLCA limits the number of mammalian game and therebypredators that can be sustained; (H2) initial investments in infrastructure limit the ability to introduce predators; and (H3) rainfall limits game and predator abundance. Wefurther assessed how managing for financial stability (optimized game stocking) or ecological sustainability (allowing game to fluctuate with environmental conditions) influenced the ability to overcome path dependence. A mechanistic PLCA model based on simple ecological and financial rules was run for different initial conditions and management strategies, simulating landowner options for adapting their business model annually. Despite attempts by simulated landowners to increase profits, adopted business models after 13 years were differentiated by initial land and infrastructural assets, supporting H1 and H2. A conservation organization's initial assets can cause it to become locked into a financially vulnerable business model In our 50-year simulation, path dependence was overcome by fewer of the landowners who facilitated natural ecological variability than those who maintained constant hunting rates and predator numbers, but the latter experienced unsustainably high game densities in low rainfall years. Management for natural variability supported long-term ecological sustainability but not shorter term socioeconomic sustainability for PLCAs. Our findings highlight trade-offs between ecological and economic sustainability and suggest a role for governmental support of the private conservation industry. La habilidad de las organizaciones privadas de conservación para permanecer viables financieramente es un factor clave que influye sobre su efectividad. Un tercio de las áreas de conservación en tierras privadas con motivación financiera (ACTP) en Sudáfrica no son rentables, lo que genera preguntas sobre las habilidades de los terrat