Probabilistic Multimodel Regional Temperature Change Projections

Regional temperature change projections for the twenty-first century are generated using a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. The models are assigned coefficients jointly, using a Bayesian linear model fitted to regional observations and simulations of the climate of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of climate 2006-09, Vol.19 (17), p.4326-4343
Main Authors: Greene, Arthur M., Goddard, Lisa, Lall, Upmanu
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmosphere
Atmospheric models
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Data analysis
Earth, ocean, space
Errors
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Geophysics. Techniques, methods, instrumentation and models
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
International environmental cooperation
Meteorology
Modeling
Multilevel models
Parametric models
Probabilities
Probability
Simulations
Statistical variance
Studies
Temperature
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Description
Summary:Regional temperature change projections for the twenty-first century are generated using a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. The models are assigned coefficients jointly, using a Bayesian linear model fitted to regional observations and simulations of the climate of the twentieth century. Probability models with varying degrees of complexity are explored, and a selection is made based on Bayesian deviance statistics, coefficient properties, and a classical cross-validation measure utilizing temporally averaged data. The model selected is shown to be superior in predictive skill to a naïve model consisting of the unweighted mean of the underlying atmosphere–ocean GCM (AOGCM) simulations, although the skill differential varies regionally. Temperature projections for the A2 and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are presented.
ISSN:0894-8755
1520-0442
DOI:10.1175/jcli3864.1