Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of North American Trees

Currently predicted change in climate could strongly affect plant distributions during the next century. Here we determine the present-day climatic niches for 130 North American tree species. We then locate the climatic conditions of these niches on maps of predicted future climate, indicating where...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bioscience 2007-12, Vol.57 (11), p.939-948
Main Authors: McKENNEY, DANIEL W, PEDLAR, JOHN H, LAWRENCE, KEVIN, CAMPBELL, KATHY, HUTCHINSON, MICHAEL F
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Climate change
Climate change adaptation
climate envelopes
Climate models
Climatic changes
Climatic conditions
Climatic zones
Climatology
Company distribution practices
Competition
Data ranges
Dispersal
Distribution
Environmental impact
Feedback (Response)
forest ecology
forest trees
Geographic Distribution
geographical distribution
Habitats
Native North Americans
Niches
North American trees
OVERVIEW ARTICLES
phytogeography
Plant species
Plants
Pollutant emissions
population dynamics
prediction
seed dispersal
Studies
Temperature control
Trees
Trees (Plants)
Variables
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Summary:Currently predicted change in climate could strongly affect plant distributions during the next century. Here we determine the present-day climatic niches for 130 North American tree species. We then locate the climatic conditions of these niches on maps of predicted future climate, indicating where each species could potentially occur by the end of the century. A major unknown in this work is the extent to which populations of trees will actually track climate shifts through migration. We therefore present two extreme scenarios in which species either move entirely into future climatic niches or do not move out of their current niches. In the full-dispersal scenario, future potential ranges show decreases and increases in size, with an average decrease of 12% and a northward shift of 700 kilometers (km). In the no-dispersal scenario, potential ranges decrease in size by 58% and shift northward by 330 km. Major redistribution pressures appear to be in order under both dispersal scenarios.
ISSN:0006-3568
1525-3244
DOI:10.1641/B571106