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Adverse cardiovascular outcomes in atrial fibrillation: Validation of the new 2MACE risk score
In addition to thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation (AF) may also predispose to major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) attributable to coronary artery disease (CAD), including myocardial infarction (MI). The 2MACE score (2 points - Metabolic syndrome and Age≥75years, 1 point - MI/revascularizati...
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Published in: | International journal of cardiology 2017-12, Vol.249, p.191-197 |
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creator | Polovina, Marija Đikić, Dijana Vlajković, Ana Vilotijević, Matej Milinković, Ivan Ašanin, Milika Ostojić, Miodrag Coats, Andrew J.S. Seferović, Petar M. |
description | In addition to thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation (AF) may also predispose to major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) attributable to coronary artery disease (CAD), including myocardial infarction (MI). The 2MACE score (2 points - Metabolic syndrome and Age≥75years, 1 point - MI/revascularization, Congestive heart failure/ejection-fraction |
doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.ijcard.2017.09.154 |
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Non-valvular AF patients (n=794) without CAD (mean-age, 62.5±12.1years, metabolic syndrome, 34.0%; heart failure/ejection-fraction <40%, 25.7%; thromboembolism, 9.7%) were prospectively followed for 5years, or until MACE (composite of non-fatal/fatal MI, revascularization and cardiovascular death). At inclusion, CAD was excluded by medical history, exercise-stress testing and/or coronary angiography. Also, the 2MACE score was determined.
At follow-up, 112 patients experienced MACE (2.8%/year). The 2MACE score demonstrated adequate discrimination (C-statistic, 0.699; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.648–0.750; P<0.001) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.79) for MACE. The score was significantly associated with MACE, with the adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) of 1.56 (95%CI, 1.35–1.73; P<0.001). As for individual outcomes, the score predicted MI (n=46; aHR, 1.49; 95%CI 1.23–1.80), revascularization (n=32; aHR, 1.41; 95%CI, 1.11–1.80) and cardiovascular death (n=34; aHR, 1.43; 95%CI, 1.14–1.81), all P<0.001.
The 2MACE score successfully predicts future MACE, including incident MI, coronary revascularization and cardiovascular death in AF patients free of CAD at baseline. It may have a role in risk-stratification and primary prevention of MACE in AF patients.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0167-5273</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1874-1754</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2017.09.154</identifier><identifier>PMID: 28986061</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Netherlands: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Aged ; Atrial fibrillation ; Atrial Fibrillation - diagnostic imaging ; Atrial Fibrillation - mortality ; Atrial Fibrillation - physiopathology ; Cardiac death ; Cardiovascular Diseases - diagnostic imaging ; Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality ; Cardiovascular Diseases - physiopathology ; Cohort Studies ; Death ; Electrocardiography - mortality ; Electrocardiography - standards ; Electrocardiography - trends ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Major adverse cardiovascular event ; Male ; Metabolic syndrome ; Middle Aged ; Myocardial infarction ; Risk Factors ; Risk score ; Severity of Illness Index ; Treatment Outcome</subject><ispartof>International journal of cardiology, 2017-12, Vol.249, p.191-197</ispartof><rights>2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd</rights><rights>Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c362t-6bcd8e50a4e10b1a132a00f3ba0c46c14f66c554cfb1188b49f9c39f2338a5733</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c362t-6bcd8e50a4e10b1a132a00f3ba0c46c14f66c554cfb1188b49f9c39f2338a5733</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27923,27924</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28986061$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Polovina, Marija</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Đikić, Dijana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vlajković, Ana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vilotijević, Matej</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Milinković, Ivan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ašanin, Milika</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ostojić, Miodrag</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Coats, Andrew J.S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Seferović, Petar M.</creatorcontrib><title>Adverse cardiovascular outcomes in atrial fibrillation: Validation of the new 2MACE risk score</title><title>International journal of cardiology</title><addtitle>Int J Cardiol</addtitle><description>In addition to thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation (AF) may also predispose to major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) attributable to coronary artery disease (CAD), including myocardial infarction (MI). The 2MACE score (2 points - Metabolic syndrome and Age≥75years, 1 point - MI/revascularization, Congestive heart failure/ejection-fraction <40%, and thrombo-Embolism) was recently proposed to help identify AF patients at risk of MACE. We assessed the predictive validity of the 2MACE score for MACE occurrence in AF patients free of CAD at baseline.
Non-valvular AF patients (n=794) without CAD (mean-age, 62.5±12.1years, metabolic syndrome, 34.0%; heart failure/ejection-fraction <40%, 25.7%; thromboembolism, 9.7%) were prospectively followed for 5years, or until MACE (composite of non-fatal/fatal MI, revascularization and cardiovascular death). At inclusion, CAD was excluded by medical history, exercise-stress testing and/or coronary angiography. Also, the 2MACE score was determined.
At follow-up, 112 patients experienced MACE (2.8%/year). The 2MACE score demonstrated adequate discrimination (C-statistic, 0.699; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.648–0.750; P<0.001) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.79) for MACE. The score was significantly associated with MACE, with the adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) of 1.56 (95%CI, 1.35–1.73; P<0.001). As for individual outcomes, the score predicted MI (n=46; aHR, 1.49; 95%CI 1.23–1.80), revascularization (n=32; aHR, 1.41; 95%CI, 1.11–1.80) and cardiovascular death (n=34; aHR, 1.43; 95%CI, 1.14–1.81), all P<0.001.
The 2MACE score successfully predicts future MACE, including incident MI, coronary revascularization and cardiovascular death in AF patients free of CAD at baseline. It may have a role in risk-stratification and primary prevention of MACE in AF patients.</description><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Atrial fibrillation</subject><subject>Atrial Fibrillation - diagnostic imaging</subject><subject>Atrial Fibrillation - mortality</subject><subject>Atrial Fibrillation - physiopathology</subject><subject>Cardiac death</subject><subject>Cardiovascular Diseases - diagnostic imaging</subject><subject>Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality</subject><subject>Cardiovascular Diseases - physiopathology</subject><subject>Cohort Studies</subject><subject>Death</subject><subject>Electrocardiography - mortality</subject><subject>Electrocardiography - standards</subject><subject>Electrocardiography - trends</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Follow-Up Studies</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Major adverse cardiovascular event</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Metabolic syndrome</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Myocardial infarction</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>Risk score</subject><subject>Severity of Illness Index</subject><subject>Treatment Outcome</subject><issn>0167-5273</issn><issn>1874-1754</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2017</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp9kM9P2zAUxy00tBa2_wBNPu6S4Bc7ib0DUlWxgVTEBXac5TjPwl0aFzsp4r9fSjuOnN47fL7vx4eQC2A5MKgu17lfWxPbvGBQ50zlUIoTMgdZiwzqUnwi8wmrs7Ko-YycpbRmjAml5GcyK6SSFatgTv4s2h3GhHQ_yoedSXbsTKRhHGzYYKK-p2aI3nTU-Sb6rjODD_0P-tt0vn3raXB0eELa4wst7hbLaxp9-kuTDRG_kFNnuoRfj_WcPP68fljeZKv7X7fLxSqzvCqGrGpsK7FkRiCwBgzwwjDmeGOYFZUF4arKlqWwrgGQshHKKcuVKziXpqw5PyffD3O3MTyPmAa98cnidG2PYUwalJB1WSsQEyoOqI0hpYhOb6PfmPiqgem9Wb3WB7N6b1YzpSezU-zbccPYbLB9D_1XOQFXBwCnP3ceo07WY2-x9RHtoNvgP97wD4mEi9w</recordid><startdate>20171215</startdate><enddate>20171215</enddate><creator>Polovina, Marija</creator><creator>Đikić, Dijana</creator><creator>Vlajković, Ana</creator><creator>Vilotijević, Matej</creator><creator>Milinković, Ivan</creator><creator>Ašanin, Milika</creator><creator>Ostojić, Miodrag</creator><creator>Coats, Andrew J.S.</creator><creator>Seferović, Petar M.</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20171215</creationdate><title>Adverse cardiovascular outcomes in atrial fibrillation: Validation of the new 2MACE risk score</title><author>Polovina, Marija ; Đikić, Dijana ; Vlajković, Ana ; Vilotijević, Matej ; Milinković, Ivan ; Ašanin, Milika ; Ostojić, Miodrag ; Coats, Andrew J.S. ; Seferović, Petar M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c362t-6bcd8e50a4e10b1a132a00f3ba0c46c14f66c554cfb1188b49f9c39f2338a5733</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2017</creationdate><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Atrial fibrillation</topic><topic>Atrial Fibrillation - diagnostic imaging</topic><topic>Atrial Fibrillation - mortality</topic><topic>Atrial Fibrillation - physiopathology</topic><topic>Cardiac death</topic><topic>Cardiovascular Diseases - diagnostic imaging</topic><topic>Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality</topic><topic>Cardiovascular Diseases - physiopathology</topic><topic>Cohort Studies</topic><topic>Death</topic><topic>Electrocardiography - mortality</topic><topic>Electrocardiography - standards</topic><topic>Electrocardiography - trends</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Follow-Up Studies</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Major adverse cardiovascular event</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Metabolic syndrome</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Myocardial infarction</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>Risk score</topic><topic>Severity of Illness Index</topic><topic>Treatment Outcome</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Polovina, Marija</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Đikić, Dijana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vlajković, Ana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vilotijević, Matej</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Milinković, Ivan</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ašanin, Milika</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ostojić, Miodrag</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Coats, Andrew J.S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Seferović, Petar M.</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>International journal of cardiology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Polovina, Marija</au><au>Đikić, Dijana</au><au>Vlajković, Ana</au><au>Vilotijević, Matej</au><au>Milinković, Ivan</au><au>Ašanin, Milika</au><au>Ostojić, Miodrag</au><au>Coats, Andrew J.S.</au><au>Seferović, Petar M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Adverse cardiovascular outcomes in atrial fibrillation: Validation of the new 2MACE risk score</atitle><jtitle>International journal of cardiology</jtitle><addtitle>Int J Cardiol</addtitle><date>2017-12-15</date><risdate>2017</risdate><volume>249</volume><spage>191</spage><epage>197</epage><pages>191-197</pages><issn>0167-5273</issn><eissn>1874-1754</eissn><abstract>In addition to thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation (AF) may also predispose to major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) attributable to coronary artery disease (CAD), including myocardial infarction (MI). The 2MACE score (2 points - Metabolic syndrome and Age≥75years, 1 point - MI/revascularization, Congestive heart failure/ejection-fraction <40%, and thrombo-Embolism) was recently proposed to help identify AF patients at risk of MACE. We assessed the predictive validity of the 2MACE score for MACE occurrence in AF patients free of CAD at baseline.
Non-valvular AF patients (n=794) without CAD (mean-age, 62.5±12.1years, metabolic syndrome, 34.0%; heart failure/ejection-fraction <40%, 25.7%; thromboembolism, 9.7%) were prospectively followed for 5years, or until MACE (composite of non-fatal/fatal MI, revascularization and cardiovascular death). At inclusion, CAD was excluded by medical history, exercise-stress testing and/or coronary angiography. Also, the 2MACE score was determined.
At follow-up, 112 patients experienced MACE (2.8%/year). The 2MACE score demonstrated adequate discrimination (C-statistic, 0.699; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.648–0.750; P<0.001) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.79) for MACE. The score was significantly associated with MACE, with the adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) of 1.56 (95%CI, 1.35–1.73; P<0.001). As for individual outcomes, the score predicted MI (n=46; aHR, 1.49; 95%CI 1.23–1.80), revascularization (n=32; aHR, 1.41; 95%CI, 1.11–1.80) and cardiovascular death (n=34; aHR, 1.43; 95%CI, 1.14–1.81), all P<0.001.
The 2MACE score successfully predicts future MACE, including incident MI, coronary revascularization and cardiovascular death in AF patients free of CAD at baseline. It may have a role in risk-stratification and primary prevention of MACE in AF patients.</abstract><cop>Netherlands</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><pmid>28986061</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.ijcard.2017.09.154</doi><tpages>7</tpages></addata></record> |
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subjects | Aged Atrial fibrillation Atrial Fibrillation - diagnostic imaging Atrial Fibrillation - mortality Atrial Fibrillation - physiopathology Cardiac death Cardiovascular Diseases - diagnostic imaging Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality Cardiovascular Diseases - physiopathology Cohort Studies Death Electrocardiography - mortality Electrocardiography - standards Electrocardiography - trends Female Follow-Up Studies Humans Major adverse cardiovascular event Male Metabolic syndrome Middle Aged Myocardial infarction Risk Factors Risk score Severity of Illness Index Treatment Outcome |
title | Adverse cardiovascular outcomes in atrial fibrillation: Validation of the new 2MACE risk score |
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