Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research

• Published in: Risk analysis 2019-01, Vol.39 (1), p.9-16
• Main Authors: French, Simon, Argyris, Nikolaos, Haywood, Stephanie M., Hort, Matthew C., Smith, Jim Q.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Cognitive ability; Communication; Confusion; Contamination; Crises; Crisis response; geographical risk; Hurricanes; Industrial accidents; Industrial pollution; Management of crises; Occupational accidents; Risk assessment; risk communication; Risk management; scenario‐focused thinking; spatiotemporal uncertainty; Uncertainty; Volcanic ash
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.12904

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.