Application of logistic regression for landslide susceptibility zoning of Cekmece Area, Istanbul, Turkey

• Published in: Environmental geology (Berlin) 2006-11, Vol.51 (2), p.241-256
• Main Authors: Duman, T. Y, Can, T, Gokceoglu, C, Nefeslioglu, H. A, Sonmez, H
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Exact sciences and technology; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc
• ISSN: 0943-0105; 1432-0495
• DOI: 10.1007/s00254-006-0322-1

As a result of industrialization, throughout the world, cities have been growing rapidly for the last century. One typical example of these growing cities is Istanbul, the population of which is over 10 million. Due to rapid urbanization, new areas suitable for settlement and engineering structures are necessary. The Cekmece area located west of the Istanbul metropolitan area is studied, because the landslide activity is extensive in this area. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can be used to characterize landslide susceptibility in map form using logistic regression analysis of an extensive landslide database. A database of landslide activity was constructed using both aerial-photography and field studies. About 19.2% of the selected study area is covered by deep-seated landslides. The landslides that occur in the area are primarily located in sandstones with interbedded permeable and impermeable layers such as claystone, siltstone and mudstone. About 31.95% of the total landslide area is located at this unit. To apply logistic regression analyses, a data matrix including 37 variables was constructed. The variables used in the forwards stepwise analyses are different measures of slope, aspect, elevation, stream power index (SPI), plan curvature, profile curvature, geology, geomorphology and relative permeability of lithological units. A total of 25 variables were identified as exerting strong influence on landslide occurrence, and included by the logistic regression equation. Wald statistics values indicate that lithology, SPI and slope are more important than the other parameters in the equation. Beta coefficients of the 25 variables included the logistic regression equation provide a model for landslide susceptibility in the Cekmece area. This model is used to generate a landslide susceptibility map that correctly classified 83.8% of the landslide-prone areas.