Assessment of uncertainties in a long range atmospheric transport model: Methodology, application and implications in a UK context

Acid deposition models are inherently simplified representations of real world behaviour and their performance is best evaluated by comparison with observations. National and international acid rain policy assessments handle observed and modelled deposition fields in different ways. Here, both the o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental pollution (1987) 2008-12, Vol.156 (3), p.997-1006
Main Authors: Page, T., Whyatt, J.D., Metcalfe, S.E., Derwent, R.G., Curtis, C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
accuracy
acid deposition
Acid Rain - analysis
Acid Rain - statistics & numerical data
Air Movements
Air Pollution - analysis
Air Pollution - statistics & numerical data
Applied sciences
atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric pollution
Computer Simulation
Critical loads
data analysis
environmental impact
Environmental Monitoring - methods
Environmental Monitoring - statistics & numerical data
Eutrophication
Exact sciences and technology
geographical distribution
GLUE
HARM
model inputs
model validation
Models, Chemical
Models, Statistical
Pollution
Public Policy
simulation models
Uncertainty
United Kingdom
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Summary:Acid deposition models are inherently simplified representations of real world behaviour and their performance is best evaluated by comparison with observations. National and international acid rain policy assessments handle observed and modelled deposition fields in different ways. Here, both the observed and modelled deposition fields are seen as uncertain and the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework is used to choose acceptable sets of model input parameters that minimise the differences between them. These acceptable sets of model parameters are then used to estimate deposition budgets to the UK and to provide a probabilistic treatment of excess deposition over environmental quality standards (critical loads). Uncertainties in modelled depositions of S and N to the UK are quantified and their implications for planned emissions reductions considered.
ISSN:0269-7491
1873-6424
DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2008.05.015