The Future of Medium–Extended-Range Weather Prediction: Challenges and a Vision

The current challenges confronting medium-to-extended-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) are 1 uncertainties in the model initial state and a characterization of model errors, 2 lack of an understanding of the dynamics of particular phenomena and the limits of pi edictability, and 3 increased...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2007-05, Vol.88 (5), p.631-634
Main Authors: Morgan, Michael C., Houghton, David D., Keller, Linda M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analytical forecasting
Dynamical systems
Forecasting models
IN BOX INSIGHTS and INNOVATIONS
Meteorology
Modeling
Objectives
Pacifism
Predictability
Statistical variance
Statistical weather forecasting
Weather
Weather forecasting
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Summary:The current challenges confronting medium-to-extended-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) are 1 uncertainties in the model initial state and a characterization of model errors, 2 lack of an understanding of the dynamics of particular phenomena and the limits of pi edictability, and 3 increased sophistication and specialization of forecast consumers and forecast consumer requirements. Because it is recognized that the NWP problem involves a complex, nonlinear dynamical system of equations whose solution is highly dependent on an imperfectly known initial state and imperfectly known and modeled physics, attempts to quantify both the initial condition uncertainty and model error have remained at the forefront of ongoing research, lhe need to reduce initial condition uncertainty is clear, as studies have demonstrated that in about a week's time, an entire hemisphere may be affected by a change in the initial model state at a given location.
ISSN:0003-0007
1520-0477
DOI:10.1175/BAMS-88-5-631