Nicotinamide and skin cancer chemoprevention: The jury is still out

Following the publication of the results of a Phase III trial, the administration of oral nicotinamide has been widely advocated as effective in non‐melanoma skin cancer chemoprevention in high‐risk individuals. However, I performed a Bayesian analysis of the reported findings and show there is insu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Australasian journal of dermatology 2018-02, Vol.59 (1), p.6-9
Main Author: Gilmore, Stephen J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian analysis
Carcinoma, Basal Cell - prevention & control
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell - prevention & control
chemoprevention
Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic
Humans
Melanoma
Niacinamide - therapeutic use
Nicotinamide
non‐melanoma skin cancer
Skin cancer
Skin Neoplasms - prevention & control
Vitamin B Complex - therapeutic use
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Summary:Following the publication of the results of a Phase III trial, the administration of oral nicotinamide has been widely advocated as effective in non‐melanoma skin cancer chemoprevention in high‐risk individuals. However, I performed a Bayesian analysis of the reported findings and show there is insufficient evidence to demonstrate its efficacy, highlighting the significant probability that the positive conclusions drawn will not be reproducible. Given the potential widespread use of oral nicotinamide, future position statements regarding its efficacy are likely to require higher standards of evidence.
ISSN:0004-8380
1440-0960
DOI:10.1111/ajd.12749