Impact of individual behaviour change on the spread of emerging infectious diseases

• Published in: Statistics in medicine 2018-03, Vol.37 (6), p.948-969
• Main Authors: Yan, Q.L., Tang, S.Y., Xiao, Y.N.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: A/H1N1; ABC SMC algorithm; behaviour change; Disease control; Ebola; Epidemics; HBM; Health behavior; Infectious diseases; SIR (SIRD) model
• ISSN: 0277-6715; 1097-0258
• DOI: 10.1002/sim.7548

Human behaviour plays an important role in the spread of emerging infectious diseases, and understanding the influence of behaviour changes on epidemics can be key to improving control efforts. However, how the dynamics of individual behaviour changes affects the development of emerging infectious disease is a key public health issue. To develop different formula for individual behaviour change and introduce how to embed it into a dynamic model of infectious diseases, we choose A/H1N1 and Ebola as typical examples, combined with the epidemic reported cases and media related news reports. Thus, the logistic model with the health belief model is used to determine behaviour decisions through the health belief model constructs. Furthermore, we propose 4 candidate infectious disease models without and with individual behaviour change and use approximate Bayesian computation based on sequential Monte Carlo method for model selection. The main results indicate that the classical compartment model without behaviour change and the model with average rate of behaviour change depicted by an exponential function could fit the observed data best. The results provide a new way on how to choose an infectious disease model to predict the disease prevalence trend or to evaluate the influence of intervention measures on disease control. However, sensitivity analyses indicate that the accumulated number of hospital notifications and deaths could be largely reduced as the rate of behaviour change increases. Therefore, in terms of mitigating emerging infectious diseases, both media publicity focused on how to guide people's behaviour change and positive responses of individuals are critical.