MARYBLYT and Cougarblight: Is there a difference?

MARYBLYT and Cougarblight are fire blight forecasters used to identify infection periods for Erwinia amylovora on apple and pear. MARYBLYT uses flowering, bacterial population (EIP), wetting, and average daily temperature, whereas Cougarblight uses flowering, wetting, a 4-day temperature window, and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Phytopathology 2005-06, Vol.95 (6)
Main Authors: Dewdney, M M, Biggs, A R, Turechek, W W
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Erwinia amylovora
Malus
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:MARYBLYT and Cougarblight are fire blight forecasters used to identify infection periods for Erwinia amylovora on apple and pear. MARYBLYT uses flowering, bacterial population (EIP), wetting, and average daily temperature, whereas Cougarblight uses flowering, wetting, a 4-day temperature window, and orchard fire blight history as parameters for predicting blossom infection. All possible thresholds of both models were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using historical weather and disease incidence data collected from major apple producing regions in England and North America. Areas under the ROC curves were equivalent based on the Mann-Whitney U statistic signifying that the two forecasters performed similarly in their ability to predict blossom blight. However, the analyses indicated that there are regional differences in predictive ability with best performance of both forecasters occurring in England. Further analysis is needed to determine the reasons for the differences.
ISSN:0031-949X