How well can we forecast high biomass algal bloom events in a eutrophic coastal sea?

High biomass algal bloom events are a characteristic of eutrophic coastal waters; these may result both in ecosystem degradation and economic loss. We present a skill evaluation of a coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem model of the NW European shelf for predicting bloom events based on a comparison with...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Harmful algae 2008-12, Vol.8 (1), p.70-76
Main Authors: Allen, J. Icarus, Smyth, Timothy J., Siddorn, John R., Holt, Martin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algal blooms
Model skill
North Sea
Ocean colour
Ocean forecast
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Summary:High biomass algal bloom events are a characteristic of eutrophic coastal waters; these may result both in ecosystem degradation and economic loss. We present a skill evaluation of a coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem model of the NW European shelf for predicting bloom events based on a comparison with satellite chlorophyll estimates. By setting thresholds to define bloom events we use a binary classification system to generate maps showing the probability a model bloom prediction is correct. Model and satellite data limitations are discussed along with the application of this method to forecasting specific harmful algal species.
ISSN:1568-9883
1878-1470
DOI:10.1016/j.hal.2008.08.024