External validation of the TIMI risk score for secondary cardiovascular events among patients with recent myocardial infarction

• Published in: Atherosclerosis 2018-05, Vol.272, p.80-86
• Main Authors: Williams, Brent A., Chagin, Kevin M., Bash, Lori D., Boden, William E., Duval, Sue, Fowkes, F. Gerry R., Mahaffey, Kenneth W., Patel, Mehul D., D'Agostino, Ralph B., Peterson, Eric D., Kattan, Michael W., Bhatt, Deepak L., Bonaca, Marc P.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Electronic medical record; Myocardial infarction; Risk stratification; Secondary prevention
• ISSN: 0021-9150; 1879-1484
• DOI: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2018.03.026

Risk stratification of patients with recent myocardial infarction (MI) for subsequent cardiovascular (CV) events helps identify patients most likely to benefit from secondary prevention therapies. This study externally validated a new risk score (TRS2˚P) for secondary events derived from the TRA2°P-TIMI 50 trial among post-MI patients from two large health care systems. This retrospective cohort study included 9618 patients treated for acute MI at either the Cleveland Clinic (CC) or Geisinger Health System (GHS) between 2008 and 2013. Patients with a clinic visit within 2–52 weeks of MI were included and followed for CV death, repeat MI, and ischemic stroke through electronic medical records (EMR). The TRS2˚P is based on nine factors determined through EMR documentation. Discrimination and calibration of the TRS2˚P were quantified in both patient populations. MI patients at CC and GHS were older, had more comorbidities, received fewer medications, and had higher 3-year event rates compared to subjects in the TRA2°P trial: 31% (CC), 33% (GHS), and 10% (TRA2°P-TIMI 50). The proposed risk score had similar discrimination across the three cohorts with c-statistics of 0.66 (CC), 0.66 (GHS), and 0.67 (TRA2°P-TIMI 50). A strong graded relationship between the risk score and event rates was observed in all cohorts, though 3-year event rates were consistently higher within TRS2°P strata in the CC and GHS cohorts relative to TRA2˚P-TIMI 50. The TRS2˚P demonstrated consistent risk discrimination across trial and non-trial patients with recent MI, but event rates were consistently higher in the non-trial cohorts. •Validation of the TIMI risk score for 2° prevention (TRS2˚P) in recent MI was performed.•The TRS2˚P showed acceptable discrimination in non-trial, real-world patients.•The TRS2˚P underestimated absolute risk in non-trial, real-world patients.•High risk patients as identified by the TRS2˚P may warrant additional therapy.