Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran’s population health

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of biometeorology 2018-07, Vol.62 (7), p.1275-1281
Main Authors: Modarres, Reza, Ghadami, Mohammad, Naderi, Sohrab, Naderi, Mohammad
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptability
Animal Physiology
Biological and Medical Physics
Biophysics
Climate change
Climate change scenarios
Climatic indexes
Developing countries
Early warning systems
Earth and Environmental Science
Environment
Environmental Health
Environmental impact
Extreme heat
Extreme high temperatures
Global warming
Heat index
Heat stress
Heat tolerance
Heat waves
LDCs
Meteorology
Original Paper
Plant Physiology
Population growth
Public health
Regional analysis
Regional development
Time series
Warning systems
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Summary:Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981–2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981–2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.
ISSN:0020-7128
1432-1254
DOI:10.1007/s00484-018-1532-4