Prediction intervals for random-effects meta-analysis: A confidence distribution approach

Prediction intervals are commonly used in meta-analysis with random-effects models. One widely used method, the Higgins–Thompson–Spiegelhalter prediction interval, replaces the heterogeneity parameter with its point estimate, but its validity strongly depends on a large sample approximation. This is...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Statistical methods in medical research 2019-06, Vol.28 (6), p.1689-1702
Main Authors: Nagashima, Kengo, Noma, Hisashi, Furukawa, Toshi A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Computer simulation
Intervals
Meta-analysis
Parameter estimation
Strength
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Summary:Prediction intervals are commonly used in meta-analysis with random-effects models. One widely used method, the Higgins–Thompson–Spiegelhalter prediction interval, replaces the heterogeneity parameter with its point estimate, but its validity strongly depends on a large sample approximation. This is a weakness in meta-analyses with few studies. We propose an alternative based on bootstrap and show by simulations that its coverage is close to the nominal level, unlike the Higgins–Thompson–Spiegelhalter method and its extensions. The proposed method was applied in three meta-analyses.
ISSN:0962-2802
1477-0334
DOI:10.1177/0962280218773520