Distribution and protection of climatic refugia in North America

• Published in: Conservation biology 2018-12, Vol.32 (6), p.1414-1425
• Main Authors: Michalak, Julia L., Lawler, Joshua J., Roberts, David R., Carroll, Carlos
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: adaptación al cambio climático; Analogs; análogos climáticos; Biodiversity; Climate; climate analogs; Climate change; climate‐change adaptation; climate‐change vulnerability; Climatic conditions; conservación; Conservation; Conservation areas; Dispersal; Dispersion; dispersión; Distribution; Identification; Locations (working); Protected areas; Rare species; Refugia; Tracking; vulnerabilidad ante el cambio climático; áreas protegidas; 保护, 气候变化适应, 气候变化脆弱性, 相似气候, 保护地
• ISSN: 0888-8892; 1523-1739
• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13130

As evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present-day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modem climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified these locations by trackingprojected changes in the size and distribution of climate analogs over time. We used biologically derived thresholds to define analogs and tested the impacts of dispersal limitation with 4 distances to limit analog searches. We identified at most 12% of North America as potential climatic refugia. Refugia extent varied depending on the analog threshold, dispersal distance, and climate projection. However, in all cases refugia were concentrated at high elevations and in topographically complex regions. Refugia identified using different climate projections were largely nested, suggesting that identified refugia were relatively robust to climate-projection selection. Existing conservation areas cover approximately 10% of North America and yet protected up to 25% of identified refugia, indicating that protected areas disproportionately include refugia. Refugia located at lower latitudes (≤40°N) and slightly lower elevations (approximately 2500 m ) were more likely to be unprotected. Based on our results, a 23% expansion of the protected-area network would be sufficient to protect the refugia present under all 3 climate projections we explored. We believe these refugia are high conservation priorities due to their potential to harbor rare species in the future. However, these locations are simultaneously highly vulnerable to climate change over the long term. These refugia contracted substantially between the 2050s and the 2080s, which supports the idea that the pace of climate change will strongly determine the availability and effectiveness of refugia for protecting today's biodiversity. Los refugios climáticos pasados han evidenciado que las localidades proyectadas para albergar remanentes de los climas actuales pueden fungir como refugios importantes para la biodiversidad contemporánea de frente al cambio climático actual. Mapeamos los refugios climáticos potenciales en el futuro a lo largo de América del Norte, definidos como localidades con condiciones climáticas cada vez más raras. Identificamos estas localidades rastreando los cambios proyectados en el tamaño y distribución de los análo