Prognostic Bayesian networks

A prognostic Bayesian network (PBN) is new type of prognostic model that implements a dynamic, process-oriented view on prognosis. In a companion article, the rationale of the PBN is described, and a dedicated learning procedure is presented. This article presents an application hereof in the domain...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of biomedical informatics 2007-12, Vol.40 (6), p.619-630
Main Authors: Verduijn, Marion, Rosseel, Peter M.J., Peek, Niels, de Jonge, Evert, de Mol, Bas A.J.M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian network
Cardiac surgery
Health care process
Prognostic model
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Summary:A prognostic Bayesian network (PBN) is new type of prognostic model that implements a dynamic, process-oriented view on prognosis. In a companion article, the rationale of the PBN is described, and a dedicated learning procedure is presented. This article presents an application hereof in the domain of cardiac surgery. A PBN is induced from clinical data of cardiac surgical patients using the proposed learning procedure; hospital mortality is used as outcome variable. The predictive performance of the PBN is evaluated on an independent test set, and results were compared to the performance of a network that was induced using a standard algorithm where candidate networks are selected using the minimal description length principle. The PBN is embedded in the prognostic system ProCarSur; a prototype of this system is presented. This application shows PBNs as a useful prognostic tool in medical processes. In addition, the article shows the added value of the PBN learning procedure.
ISSN:1532-0464
1532-0480
DOI:10.1016/j.jbi.2007.07.004