The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s (1988) [Heien, D.M., Wessells, C., 1988. The demand for dairy produc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Food policy 2006-06, Vol.31 (3), p.260-271
Main Author: Dong, Fengxia
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asia
Consumption
Dairy
dairy industry
dairy products
demographic statistics
economic forecasting
food prices
food retailing
income
Simulation
world markets
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Summary:The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s (1988) [Heien, D.M., Wessells, C., 1988. The demand for dairy products: structure, prediction, and decomposition. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70, 219-28] technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.
ISSN:0306-9192
1873-5657
DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2006.02.007