Decadal Climatic Variability, Trends, and Future Scenarios for the North China Plain

• Published in: Journal of climate 2009-04, Vol.22 (8), p.2111-2123
• Main Authors: Fu, Guobin, Charles, Stephen P., Yu, Jingjie, Liu, Changming
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural industry; Agriculture; Annual precipitation; Climate change; Climate models; Climate variability; Climatic indexes; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth, ocean, space; Elasticity; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Future climates; Groundwater; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; International environmental cooperation; Meteorology; Minimum temperatures; Precipitation; River basins; River water; Rivers; Statistical analysis; Statistical significance; Stream discharge; Stream flow; Trends; Urban agriculture; Urban areas; Variability; Water resources; Water resources management; Water shortages; Water supply
• ISSN: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
• DOI: 10.1175/2008jcli2605.1

Observed decadal climatic variability and trends for the north China plain (NCP) are assessed for significance with Kendall’s test and discussed in light of future climate scenarios from multi-GCM outputs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The results indicate that the NCP has become warmer and drier over the last four decades. The annual precipitation has declined by about 43.9 mm (6.7%, although not statistically significant), and the annual means of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.83°, 0.18°, and 1.46°C, respectively, during the past 40 yr. Both trends for annual means of daily mean and minimum temperatures are statistically significant. The future climate of the NCP is projected to be warmer and, with less confidence, wetter. However, streamflow could decline under these projections, based on the results of the two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index. This will produce serious challenges for water resources management and likely lead to exacerbated problems for agriculture, industry, urban communities, and the environment.