Climate change effects on poikilotherm tritrophic interactions

• Published in: Climatic change 2008-03, Vol.87 (1), p.167-192
• Main Authors: Gutierrez, Andrew Paul, Ponti, Luigi, d'Oultremont, Thibaud, Ellis, C. K
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Abiotic factors; Agriculture; Alfalfa; Animal populations; Atmospheric Sciences; Biological control; Biotic factors; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate effects; Climate models; Cotton; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Ecosystem studies; Environmental science; Epidemics; Flowers & plants; Food webs; Geographic information systems; Geographical distribution; Global climate; Global warming; Growth rate; High temperature; Impact analysis; Introduced species; Invasive plants; Invasive species; Low temperature; Olea; Pests; Phenology; Plant populations; Plant species; Rain; Remote sensing; Renewable resources; Solar energy; Solar radiation; Temperature; Trophic levels; Variables; Vitaceae; Weather; Weeds
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9379-4

Species of plants and animals have characteristic climatic requirements for growth, survival and reproduction that limit their geographic distribution, abundance and interactions with other species. To analyze this complexity requires the development of models that include not only the effects of biotic factors on species dynamics and interactions, but also the effects of abiotic factors including weather. The need for such capacity has appreciably increased as we face the threat of global climate change. In this paper, bi- and tri-trophic physiologically based demographic models of alfalfa, cotton, grape, olive and the noxious weed yellow starthistle systems are used to explore some of the potential effects of climate change. A general model that applies to all species in all trophic levels (including the economic one) is used to simulate the effects of observed and projected weather on system dynamics. Observed daily weather and that of climate model scenarios were used as forcing variables in our studies. Geographic information system (GRASS GIS) is used to map the predicted effects on species across the varied ecological zones of California. The predictions of the geographic distribution and abundance of the various species examined accords well with field observations. Furthermore, the models predict how the geographic range and abundance of the some species would be affected by climate change. Among the findings are: (1) The geographic range of tree species such as olive that require chilling to break dormancy (i.e. vernalization) may be limited in some areas due to climate warming, but their range may expand in others. For example, olive phenology and yield will be affected in the southern part of California due to high temperature, but may expand in northern areas until limited by low winter temperatures. Pest distribution and abundance will also be affected. For example, climate warming would allow the cold intolerant pink bollworm in cotton to expand its range into formerly inhospitable heavy frost areas of the San Joaquin Valley, and damage rates will increase throughout its current range. The distribution and abundance of other cold intolerant pests such as olive fly, the Mediterranean fruit fly and others could be similarly affected. In addition, species dominance and existence in food webs could change (e.g. in alfalfa), and the biological control of invasive species might be adversely affected (e.g. vine mealybug in grape). The distribution