Limitations of Bayesian Evidence applied to cosmology

There has been increasing interest by cosmologists in applying Bayesian techniques, such as Bayesian Evidence, for model selection. A typical example is in assessing whether observational data favour a cosmological constant over evolving dark energy. In this paper, the example of dark energy is used...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 2008-08, Vol.388 (3), p.1314-1320
Main Author: Efstathiou, G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Astronomy
Astrophysics
Bayesian analysis
cosmological parameters
Cosmology
cosmology observations
cosmology: methods: data analysis
cosmology: theory
Dark energy
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
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Summary:There has been increasing interest by cosmologists in applying Bayesian techniques, such as Bayesian Evidence, for model selection. A typical example is in assessing whether observational data favour a cosmological constant over evolving dark energy. In this paper, the example of dark energy is used to illustrate limitations in the application of Bayesian Evidence associated with subjective judgements concerning the choice of model and priors. An analysis of recent cosmological data shows a statistically insignificant preference for a cosmological constant over simple dynamical models of dark energy. It is argued that for nested problems, as considered here, Bayesian parameter estimation can be more informative than computing Bayesian Evidence for poorly motivated physical models.
ISSN:0035-8711
1365-2966
DOI:10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13498.x