The Role of the Sahara Low in Summertime Sahel Rainfall Variability and Change in the CMIP3 Models

Projections for twenty-first-century changes in summertime Sahel precipitation differ greatly across models in the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset and cannot be explained solely in terms of discrepancies in the projected anomalies in global SST. This study shows that an i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of climate 2009-11, Vol.22 (21), p.5755-5771
Main Authors: Biasutti, M., Sobel, A. H., Camargo, Suzana J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anomalies
Brackish
Climate change
Climate models
Datasets
Earth, ocean, space
Emissions
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Fluid dynamics
Freshwater
Geopotential
Geopotential height
Global climate models
Global temperatures
Global warming
Greenhouse gases
Interannual variability
Intercomparison
Marine
Meteorology
Modeling
Natural variability
Nonfiction
Rain
Rainfall
Rainfall forecasting
Rainfall variability
Sahel
Sea surface
Simulations
SPECIAL U.S. CLIVAR Drought COLLECTION
Surface temperature
Trends
Variability
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Summary:Projections for twenty-first-century changes in summertime Sahel precipitation differ greatly across models in the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset and cannot be explained solely in terms of discrepancies in the projected anomalies in global SST. This study shows that an index describing the low-level circulation in the North Atlantic–African region, namely, the strength of the low-level Saharan low, correlates with Sahel rainfall in all models and at the time scales of both interannual and interdecadal natural variability and of the forced centennial trend. An analysis of Sahel interannual variability provides evidence that variations in the Sahara low can be a cause, not just a consequence, of variations in Sahel rainfall and suggests that a better understanding of the sources of model discrepancy in Sahel rainfall predictions might be gained from an analysis of the mechanisms influencing changes in the Sahara low.
ISSN:0894-8755
1520-0442
DOI:10.1175/2009jcli2969.1