Global Population Dynamics and Hot Spots of Response to Climate Change

Understanding how biotic and abiotic factors influence the abundance and distribution of organisms has become more important with the growing awareness of the ecological consequences of climate change. In this article, we outline an approach that complements bioclimatic envelope modeling in quantify...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bioscience 2009-06, Vol.59 (6), p.489-497
Main Authors: Post, Eric, Brodie, Jedediah, Hebblewhite, Mark, Anders, Angela D, Maier, Julie A. K, Wilmers, Christopher C
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abiotic factors
bioclimatic envelope modeling
Bioclimatology
Causes of
Climate
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Climatic changes
Correlation analysis
Demographic aspects
Ecological effects
Ecologists
Ecology
El Nino
environmental models
environmental niche model
extinction
Extinction (Biology)
Feedback (Response)
geographical distribution
Global climate models
Global warming
Holistic Approach
Influence
literature reviews
OVERVIEW ARTICLES
Population biology
Population density
Population distributions
Population dynamics
Population growth
Species
Species extinction
Time series analysis
Weather
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Summary:Understanding how biotic and abiotic factors influence the abundance and distribution of organisms has become more important with the growing awareness of the ecological consequences of climate change. In this article, we outline an approach that complements bioclimatic envelope modeling in quantifying the effects of climate change at the species level. The global population dynamics approach, which relies on distribution-wide, data-driven analyses of dynamics, goes beyond quantifying biotic interactions in population dynamics to identify hot spots of response to climate change. Such hot spots highlight populations or locations within species’ distributions that are particularly sensitive to climate change, and identification of them should focus conservation and management efforts. An important result of the analyses highlighted here is pronounced variation at the species level in the strength and direction of population responses to warming. Although this variation complicates species-level predictions of responses to climate change, the global population dynamics approach may improve our understanding of the complex implications of climate change for species persistence or extinction.
ISSN:0006-3568
1525-3244
DOI:10.1525/bio.2009.59.6.7