Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems

Shaping social-ecological systems towards sustainable, desirable and equitable futures is often hampered by complex human-natural feedbacks, emergence and nonlinearities. Consequently, the future of systems vulnerable to collapse is uncertain under plausible trajectories of environmental change, soc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Science of the total environment 2019-02, Vol.651 (Pt 2), p.2105-2117
Main Authors: Cooper, Gregory S., Dearing, John A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Chilika lagoon
Ecosystem
Fisheries
India
Models, Theoretical
Monte Carlo Method
Natural resource management
Plausible futures
Safe and just operating spaces
Social-ecological modelling
Sustainable Development
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Summary:Shaping social-ecological systems towards sustainable, desirable and equitable futures is often hampered by complex human-natural feedbacks, emergence and nonlinearities. Consequently, the future of systems vulnerable to collapse is uncertain under plausible trajectories of environmental change, socioeconomic development and decision-making. We develop a modelling approach that incorporates driver interactions and feedbacks to operationalise future “safe and just operating spaces” for sustainable development. Monte Carlo simulations of fish catch from India's Chilika lagoon are compared to conditions that are ecologically and socioeconomically desirable as per today's norms. Akin to a satellite-navigation system, the model identifies multidimensional pathways giving at least a 75% chance of achieving the desirable future, whilst simultaneously diverting the system away from undesirable pathways. Critically for regional governance, the driver limits and trade-offs associated with regulating the resource are realised. More widely, this approach represents an adaptable framework that explores the resilience of social-ecological interactions and feedbacks underpinning regional sustainable development. [Display omitted] •The first future safe and just operating spaces of a real social-ecological system•Systems modelling explores resilience to driver interactions, feedbacks and management.•Resilient causal pathways are traced back from pre-defined safe and just futures.•Decommonisation extends Chilika's resilience to fishery intensification pathways.•Decision-makers should target the “core space” of the safest driver interactions.
ISSN:0048-9697
1879-1026
DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.118