Comments on “Probability for a Period and Its Subperiods: Theoretical Relations for Forecasting”

In a recent paper Krzysztofowicz (1999, hereafter K99) has analyzed relations between probability pi of occurrence of rain within a period T and marginal probabilities pi sub(1) and pi sub(2) of rain within nonoverlapping sub-periods T sub(1) and T sub(2) such that T sub(1) [U maze] T sub(2) = T. Th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Monthly weather review 2000-08, Vol.128 (8), p.3011-3013
Main Author: Kivman, Gennady A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:In a recent paper Krzysztofowicz (1999, hereafter K99) has analyzed relations between probability pi of occurrence of rain within a period T and marginal probabilities pi sub(1) and pi sub(2) of rain within nonoverlapping sub-periods T sub(1) and T sub(2) such that T sub(1) [U maze] T sub(2) = T. The most nontrivial part of the study is devoted to estimating pi in the case when pi sub(1) and pi sub(2) are known from a forecast and two approaches were put forward. The heart of them is estimating stochastic dependence between rains within subperiods. After commenting on the estimator developed by K99, the author presents a new estimator.
ISSN:0027-0644
1520-0493
DOI:10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<3011:COPFAP>2.0.CO;2