Determinants of Electoral Outcomes: An Analysis of General Elections in India

According to the vote functions approach, a vote for or against the government is determined by economic and political determinants in the election or pre-election years. For each constituency, we focus on the political parties that receive the top two vote-shares (Ansolabehere et al 2007). [...]for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Economic and political weekly 2019-03
Main Author: Ajit Karnik Mala Lalvani Manali Phatak
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
College faculty
Constituents
Economic conditions
Economic reform
Election results
Elections
Incumbency
India
Legislatures
Parliamentary elections
Party affiliation
Political parties
Political science
Research scientists
Term limitations
Voter behavior
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Summary:According to the vote functions approach, a vote for or against the government is determined by economic and political determinants in the election or pre-election years. For each constituency, we focus on the political parties that receive the top two vote-shares (Ansolabehere et al 2007). [...]for each constituency we have two observations-one for the winning political party and another for the runner-up party-collected over 10 general elections from 1980 to 2014, giving us a total of 8,482 observations. Since the effects of incumbency become starkly visible only when contests in previous elections have been determined by narrow margins, we report below equations where margins of victory in previous elections have been restricted to +/-5%. [...]being a BJP candidate provides an advantage of winning the elections in all these three categories of state.
ISSN:0012-9976