Danger Degrees Adjustment For The Monte Alegre Formula (FMA)

• Published in: WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment 2012-01, Vol.158, p.199
• Main Authors: Wendling, W T, Soares, R V, Batista, A C, Tetto, A F
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Computer simulation; Fire hazards; Forest fires; Forests; Hazards; Relative humidity
• ISSN: 1746-448X; 1743-3541
• DOI: 10.2495/FIVA120171

The Monte Alegre Formula (FMA) is the most used fire danger index in Brazil to determine forest fire danger degree and planning prevention and suppression activities. This research aimed to adjust the danger degree levels of the FMA index in order to increase its efficiency to predict forest fires. A database consisted of thirty years of fire records and meteorological data from a forest district located in the County of Telemaco Borba, Parana State, southern Brazil was used to carry out the research. Simulations comprised 5 and 10 year periods, discriminating the occurrences in two annual seasons, a dry (May to September) and a humid (October to April), by monthly average relative humidity criterion. Trends in frequencies of fire occurrences, and season periods, were compared to the total annual period and corrected by the considered optimal values for planning the suppression structure. After that, the FMA original danger degree values were mathematically recalculated in order to obtain the lower and upper limits of the new five levels danger scale, to be used in the future. The limits of the adjusted danger degrees presented differences between the two annual seasons (dry and humid), as well as between these and the total annual period, what indicates the efficiency of the proposed methodology. The application of the new methodology could be viable also in other geographic regions.