A Land-use Transition Model Based On Building Lots Considering The Steady State Of Locations And Inconstancy Of Transition

• Main Author: Osaragi, T
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Subjects: Conversion; Environmental planning; Land use; Land use management; Markov chains; Raster; Steady state; Transition probabilities
• ISSN: 1746-448X; 1743-3541
• DOI: 10.2495/SPD050081

Several Markov chain models for land-use conversion have been proposed and analysed for dynamics in land-use and environmental planning. However, some problems have been encountered in the method for estimating the land-use transition probability. A new estimation method to determine the land-use transition probability is proposed in this paper. The salient features of this method are as follows: (1) In previous studies, the land-use transition probability matrix was typically estimated using time series raster data by counting the number of cells based on the land-use categories. However, the transition probability should be estimated by counting the number of building lots since building lots and not cells are the spatial unit for land-use conversion. A method to estimate the number of building lots using raster data is proposed in this paper. (2) There exist several building lots where the land-use does not vary stochastically. Therefore, building lots in the steady state should be excluded during the estimation process of the land-use transition probability. A method to estimate the number of building lots in the steady state is proposed here. The effectiveness of the proposed methods and some new findings on land-use conversion are demonstrated using numerical examples.