Risk–Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

• Published in: Risk analysis 2019-11, Vol.39 (11), p.2427-2442
• Main Author: Baum, Seth D.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ambiguity; Asteroid collisions; Asteroid deflection; Asteroids; Conflict; Decision analysis; Deflection; Explosives; Nuclear war; nuclear weapons; Quantitative analysis; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; risk–risk tradeoff; Social factors; Social processes; Tradeoff analysis; Tradeoffs
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.13339

To prevent catastrophic asteroid–Earth collisions, it has been proposed to use nuclear explosives to deflect away earthbound asteroids. However, this policy of nuclear deflection could inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war and other violent conflict. This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precise conclusion on the overall risk–risk tradeoff. The value of this article comes less from specific quantitative conclusions and more from providing an analytical framework and a better overall understanding of the policy decision. The article demonstrates the importance of integrated analysis of global risks and the policies to address them, as well as the challenge of quantitative evaluation of complex social processes such as violent conflict.