A critical appraisal of the clinical applicability and risk of bias of the predictive models for mortality and recurrence in patients with oropharyngeal cancer: Systematic review

• Published in: Head & neck 2020-04, Vol.42 (4), p.763-773
• Main Authors: Palazón‐Bru, Antonio, Mares‐García, Emma, López‐Bru, David, Mares‐Arambul, Enrique, Folgado‐de la Rosa, David M., Carbonell‐Torregrosa, María de los Ángeles, Gil‐Guillén, Vicente F.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bias; death; Head and neck; Humans; Mortality; Neoplasm Recurrence, Local; Oropharyngeal cancer; oropharyngeal neoplasms; Oropharyngeal Neoplasms - therapy; Prediction models; recurrence; Research Design; Statistical analysis; statistical models; Systematic review; Systematic Reviews as Topic; Throat cancer
• ISSN: 1043-3074; 1097-0347
• DOI: 10.1002/hed.26025

The use of predictive models is becoming widespread. However, these models should be developed appropriately (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modeling Studies [CHARMS] and Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool [PROBAST] statements). Concerning mortality/recurrence in oropharyngeal cancer, we are not aware of any systematic reviews of the predictive models. We carried out a systematic review of the MEDLINE/EMBASE databases of those predictive models. In these models, we analyzed the 11 domains of the CHARMS statement and the risk of bias and applicability, using the PROBAST tool. Six papers were finally included in the systematic review and all of them presented high risk of bias and several limitations in the statistical analysis. The applicability was satisfactory in five out of six studies. None of the models could be considered ready for use in clinical practice.