A Nomogram for Predicting Stroke Recurrence Among Young Adults

• Published in: Stroke (1970) 2020-06, Vol.51 (6), p.1865-1867
• Main Authors: Yuan, Kang, Chen, Jingjing, Xu, Pengfei, Zhang, Xiaohao, Gong, Xiuqun, Wu, Min, Xie, Yi, Wang, Huaiming, Xu, Gelin, Liu, Xinfeng
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0039-2499; 1524-4628
• DOI: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.120.029740

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE—This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of stroke recurrence among young adults after ischemic stroke. METHODS—Patients aged between 18 and 49 years with first-ever ischemic stroke were selected from the Nanjing Stroke Registry Program. A stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression model was employed to develop the best-fit nomogram. The discrimination and calibration in the training and validation cohorts were used to evaluate the nomogram. All patients were classified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups based on the risk scores generated from the nomogram. RESULTS—A total of 604 patients were enrolled in this study. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 2.038 [95% CI, 1.504–3.942]; P=0.034), diabetes mellitus (HR, 3.224 [95% CI, 1.848–5.624]; P12 versus 0–6; HR, 0.070 [95% CI, 0.015–0.319]; P=0.001) were inversely correlated with recurrent stroke. The nomogram was composed of these factors, and successfully stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (P