Nomogram to predict the risk and survival of synchronous bone metastasis in colorectal cancer: a population-based real-world analysis

Purpose Bone metastasis (BM) can obviously affect the quality of life of patients in colorectal cancer (CRC), and the whole management of patients with BM would be attractive in current clinical practice. Methods A total of 52,859 patients during 2010–2015 were collected from Surveillance, Epidemiol...

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Published in:International journal of colorectal disease 2020-08, Vol.35 (8), p.1575-1585
Main Authors: Han, Lingyu, Dai, Weixing, Mo, Shaobo, Xiang, Wenqiang, Li, Qingguo, Xu, Ye, Wang, Renjie, Cai, Guoxiang
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bone cancer
Cancer
Cancer patients
CEA (Oncology)
Chemoradiotherapy
Chemotherapy
Colorectal cancer
Colorectal carcinoma
Communications equipment
Epidemiology
Gastroenterology
Health aspects
Hepatology
Histology
Internal Medicine
Liver
Medical research
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Medicine, Experimental
Metastases
Metastasis
Nomograms
Original Article
Patients
Proctology
Quality of life
Risk factors
Surgery
Survival
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Summary:Purpose Bone metastasis (BM) can obviously affect the quality of life of patients in colorectal cancer (CRC), and the whole management of patients with BM would be attractive in current clinical practice. Methods A total of 52,859 patients during 2010–2015 were collected from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. After propensity score matching (PSM), cancer-specific survival (CCS) and overall survival (OS) with BM were adopted to assess survival probability difference. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for BM; COX proportion hazard regression was applied to explore prognosticators for OS in patients with BM. Subsequently, nomograms were constructed and receiver operating curves (ROCs) were used to confirm the validation of nomogram. Results Three hundred and forty-two (0.65%) patients were diagnosed with synchronous BM. After PSM, 16 variables were balanced. Tumor site, histology, grade, T stage, N stage, CEA, radiochemotherapy, surgery, and liver/lung/brain metastases were associated with BM, and histology, grade, T stage, N stage, CEA, chemotherapy, surgery, and liver/lung metastases were prognosticators for BM survival. Nomograms were applied and the ROC curve proved the predictive effects. Conclusion CRC patients with BM have worse real-world survival. Nomogram can predict incidence of BM in CRC patients and survival among patients with BM.
ISSN:0179-1958
1432-1262
DOI:10.1007/s00384-020-03612-z