Conceptualising, evaluating and communicating uncertainty in forensic science: Identifying commonly used tools through an interdisciplinary configurative review

• Published in: Science & justice 2020-07, Vol.60 (4), p.313-336
• Main Authors: Georgiou, N., Morgan, R.M., French, J.C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Communication; Crime; Critical interpretive synthesis; Forensic science; Forensic Sciences; Humans; Interdisciplinary review; Reproducibility of Results; Uncertainty; Uncertainty communication; Uncertainty conceptualisation; Uncertainty evaluation
• ISSN: 1355-0306; 1876-4452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scijus.2020.04.002

•A consideration of conceptualisation, evaluation and communication of uncertainty.•A toolkit was developed for each of these different facets of uncertainty.•The toolkits offer valuable insights for expert and lay decision makers. This study provides a set of tools for conceptualising, evaluating and communicating uncertainty in forensic science. Given that the concept of uncertainty is one that transcends disciplinary boundaries, an interdisciplinary configurative review was carried out incorporating the disciplines of medicine, environmental science and economics, in order to identify common themes which could have valuable applications to the discipline of forensic science. Critical Interpretive Synthesis was used to develop sub-synthetic and synthetic constructs which interpreted and synthesised the underlying evidence and codes. This study provides three toolkits, one each for conceptualisation, evaluation and communication. The study identified an underlying theme concerning the obstacles that would need to be overcome for the effective application of these toolkits and achieving effective conceptualisation, evaluation and communication of uncertainty in forensic science to lay-stakeholders. These toolkits offer a starting point for developing the conversation for achieving greater transparency in the communication of uncertainty. They also have the potential to offer stakeholders enhanced understanding of the nuances and limitations of forensic science evidence and enable more transparent evaluation and scrutiny of the reliability, relevance and probative value of forensic materials in a crime reconstruction.