Monitoring Changes in Risk of Reoffending: A Prospective Study of 632 Men on Community Supervision

• Published in: Journal of consulting and clinical psychology 2020-10, Vol.88 (10), p.886-898
• Main Authors: Babchishin, Kelly M, Hanson, R. Karl
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adjustment; Adult; Averages; Best practice; Changes; Community; Criminals - psychology; Exploratory Factor Analysis; Human; Humans; Male; Measurement; Measurement Invariance; Men; Middle Aged; Prospective Studies; Recidivism; Reliability; Reproducibility of Results; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Sex Offenses; Sexual motivation; Statistical Analysis; Supervision; Test Validity
• ISSN: 0022-006X; 1939-2117
• DOI: 10.1037/ccp0000601

Objectives: Few studies have examined how much individuals change on intermediate targets of risk to reoffend. Even fewer studies have examined the extent to which change on such measures predict reoffending. Establishing the validity of intermediate measures requires a multistep approach that (a) assesses the reliability of the change, (b) assesses change using statistical analyses that can account for measurement error, and (c) examines the extent to which change on these intermediate measures predict reoffending. Method: The current study examined the validity of an intermediate measure of risk to reoffend scored by community supervision officers (i.e., ACUTE-2007) in a large sample of men convicted of sexually motivated offenses (N = 632). Results: We found that risk to reoffend changes across time, the pattern of change varies across individuals, risk levels can predict different patterns of change, and that the best predictors of recidivism are the latest score or a rolling average of scores. Conclusions: Community supervision can use recent information concerning the community adjustment of their clients to predict recidivism. Best practice includes updating assessments and adjusting supervision practices based on their clients' most recent assessment, or the average of previous assessments. What is the public health significance of this article? Sexual offending is a serious public health concern. The current article examines how to assess the likelihood of reoffending among men with sexual offenses who are in the community. Our studies suggest that community supervision agents are able to assess changes in the risk for reoffending. Best practice should include reassessments throughout the supervision period and adjusting supervision practices based on the most recent assessment, or an average of the previous assessments.