Uncertainty in reliability evaluation processes and a simulation approach to treating it

This paper considers the problem of uncertainty in reliability data that are used in many decision making processes and describes a simulation approach to dealing explicitly with this uncertainty. The causes of uncertainty are discussed for three different situations: (a) in the process of designing...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:European journal of operational research 1987-11, Vol.32 (2), p.245-250
Main Author: VUJOSEVIC, M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Decision making
Evaluation
Exact sciences and technology
Mathematical models
Monte Carlo simulation
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Operations research
Processes
Reliability
Reliability theory. Replacement problems
Uncertainty
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Summary:This paper considers the problem of uncertainty in reliability data that are used in many decision making processes and describes a simulation approach to dealing explicitly with this uncertainty. The causes of uncertainty are discussed for three different situations: (a) in the process of designing new systems, when failure data are not yet available, (b) after performing reliability test and gathering failure data, and (c) in mission reliability prediction. It is concluded that, in performing reliability prediction or failure rate prediction, one should use interval estimates rather than point estimates. These intervals can be used to perform component classification and then, employing simulation, to obtain tables or scattergrams for the mean time between failures of a system or for system reliability.
ISSN:0377-2217
1872-6860
DOI:10.1016/S0377-2217(87)80146-7