Global and National Environmental Impacts of the US–China Trade War

The recent “US–China trade war” has aroused concern over trade-related environmental impacts. This study built a multiregional computable general equilibrium model to simulate environmental impacts of the “US–China trade war” under different scenarios of tariff and nontariff barriers and the battlef...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science & technology 2020-12, Vol.54 (24), p.16108-16118
Main Authors: Lu, Jianhong, Mao, Xianqiang, Wang, Mudan, Liu, Zhengyan, Song, Peng
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Battlefields
Brazil
Carbon dioxide
Carbon Dioxide - analysis
Carbon dioxide emissions
China
Developing countries
Emissions
Emissions control
Energy and Climate
Environment
Environmental impact
Environmental monitoring
France
India
Land use
LDCs
Republic of Korea
Russia
Supply chains
Tariffs
Trade
Trade disputes
Vietnam
War
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Summary:The recent “US–China trade war” has aroused concern over trade-related environmental impacts. This study built a multiregional computable general equilibrium model to simulate environmental impacts of the “US–China trade war” under different scenarios of tariff and nontariff barriers and the battlefield spreading ranges. The present study found that although the trade war will cause a global economic downturn, which will seemingly reduce environmental pressure globally, global carbon emissions are expected to increase rather than decline. On the one hand, the CO2 emission increase caused by land-use changes in Brazil and Argentina will far exceed the emission reduction because of decreased global production. On the other hand, some countries/economies especially those developing countries such as Vietnam, Russia, and India will face emission increases driven by scale effects. Countries such as Korea, the UK, and France will enjoy a reduction in emissions driven by structural effects. China and the US will face a reduction in production and CO2 emissions, but their CO2 emission intensities will rise. The results remind us that as global production and supply chains are formed, it is important to closely monitor trade-related environmental impacts. Efforts should be made to balance the interests of trade and the environment.
ISSN:0013-936X
1520-5851
DOI:10.1021/acs.est.0c03863